Exploring the path to polio eradication: insights from consecutive seroprevalence surveys among Pakistani children.

Introduction: After trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) cessation, Pakistan has maintained immunity to type 2 poliovirus by administering inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization, alongside monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2) and IPV in supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). This study assesses the change in poliovirus type 2 immunity after tOPV withdrawal and due to SIAs with mOPV2 and IPV among children aged 6-11 months. Methods: Three cross-sectional sequential serological surveys were conducted in 12 polio high-risk areas of Pakistan. 25 clusters from each geographical stratum were selected utilizing probability proportional to size. Results: Seroprevalence of type 2 poliovirus was 49%, with significant variation observed among surveyed areas; <30% in Pishin, >80% in Killa Abdullah, Mardan & Swabi, and Rawalpindi. SIAs with IPV improved immunity from 38 to 57% in Karachi and 60 to 88% in Khyber. SIAs with IPV following mOPV2 improved immunity from 62 to 65% in Killa Abdullah, and combined mOPV2 and IPV SIAs in Pishin improved immunity from 28 to 89%. Results also reflected that immunity rates for serotypes 1 and 3 were consistently above 90% during all three phases and across all geographical areas. Conclusion: The study findings highlight the importance of implementing effective vaccination strategies to prevent the re-emergence of poliovirus. Moreover, the results provide crucial information for policymakers working toward achieving global polio eradication.

Prediction Model with Validation for Polioseronegativity in Malnourished Children from Poliomyelitis Transmission High-Risk Area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Background: Malnutrition is identified as a risk factor for insufficient polio seroconversion in the context of a vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) outbreak-prone region. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), underweight decreased from 31% (in 2001) to 26% (in 2018). Since 2004, VDPV serotype 2 outbreaks (cVDPV2) have been documented and were geographically limited around the Haut-Lomami and Tanganyika Provinces. Methods: To develop and validate a predictive model for poliomyelitis vaccine response in malnourished infants, a cross-sectional household study was carried out in the Haut-Lomami and Tanganyika provinces. Healthy children aged 6 to 59 months (n=968) were enrolled from eight health zones (HZ) out of 27, in March 2018. We performed a bivariate and multivariate logistics analysis. Final models were selected using a stepwise Wald method, and variables were selected based on the criterion p < 0.05. The association between nutritional variables, explaining polio seronegativity for the three serotypes, was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve). Results: Factors significantly associated with seronegativity to the three polio serotypes were underweight, non-administration of vitamin A, and the age group of 12 to 59 months. The sensitivity was 10.5%, and its specificity was 96.4% while the positive predictive values (PPV) and negative (PNV) were 62.7% and 65.3%, respectively. We found a convergence of the curves of the initial sample and two split samples. Based on the comparison of the overlapping confidence intervals of the ROC curve, we concluded that our prediction model is valid. Conclusion: This study proposed the first tool which variables are easy to collect by any health worker in charge of vaccination or in charge of nutrition. It will bring on top, the collaboration between the Immunization and the Nutritional programs in DRC integration policy, and its replicability in other low- and middle-income countries with endemic poliovirus.

Genetic Characterization of Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 Viruses During Initial Use Phase Under Emergency Use Listing - Worldwide, March-October 2021.

The emergence and international spread of neurovirulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) across multiple countries in Africa and Asia in recent years pose a major challenge to the goal of eradicating all forms of polioviruses. Approximately 90% of all cVDPV outbreaks are caused by the type 2 strain of the Sabin vaccine, an oral live, attenuated vaccine; cVDPV outbreaks typically occur in areas of persistently low immunization coverage (1). A novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2), produced by genetic modification of the type 2 Sabin vaccine virus genome (2), was developed and evaluated through phase I and phase II clinical trials during 2017-2019. nOPV2 was demonstrated to be safe and well-tolerated, have noninferior immunogenicity, and have superior genetic stability compared with Sabin monovalent type 2 (as measured by preservation of the primary attenuation site [domain V in the 5' noncoding region] and significantly lower neurovirulence of fecally shed vaccine virus in transgenic mice) (3-5). These findings indicate that nOPV2 could be an important tool in reducing the risk for generating vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) and the risk for vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases. Based on the favorable preclinical and clinical data, and the public health emergency of international concern generated by ongoing endemic wild poliovirus transmission and cVDPV type 2 outbreaks, the World Health Organization authorized nOPV2 for use under the Emergency Use Listing (EUL) pathway in November 2020, allowing for its first use for outbreak response in March 2021 (6). As required by the EUL process, among other EUL obligations, an extensive plan was developed and deployed for obtaining and monitoring nOPV2 isolates detected during acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, environmental surveillance, adverse events after immunization surveillance, and targeted surveillance for adverse events of special interest (i.e., prespecified events that have the potential to be causally associated with the vaccine product), during outbreak response, as well as through planned field studies. Under this monitoring framework, data generated from whole-genome sequencing of nOPV2 isolates, alongside other virologic data for isolates from AFP and environmental surveillance systems, are reviewed by the genetic characterization subgroup of an nOPV working group of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Global nOPV2 genomic surveillance during March-October 2021 confirmed genetic stability of the primary attenuating site. Sequence data generated through this unprecedented global effort confirm the genetic stability of nOPV2 relative to Sabin 2 and suggest that nOPV2 will be an important tool in the eradication of poliomyelitis. nOPV2 surveillance should continue for the duration of the EUL.

Poliovirus immunity among adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a cross-sectional serosurvey.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination efforts to eradicate polio currently focus on children under 5 years of age, among whom most cases of poliomyelitis still occur. However, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 occurred in 2010-2011 in which 16% of cases occurred among adults; in a related outbreak in the neighboring Republic of Congo, 75% of cases occurred among the same adult age-group. Given that infected adults may transmit poliovirus, this study was designed to assess adult immunity against polioviruses. METHODS: We assessed poliovirus seroprevalence using dried blood spots from 5,526 adults aged 15-59 years from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the DRC. RESULTS: Among adults in the DRC, 74%, 72%, and 57% were seropositive for neutralizing antibodies for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. For all three serotypes, seroprevalence tended to be higher among older age groups, those living in households with more children, and among women. CONCLUSIONS: Protection against poliovirus is generally low among adults in the DRC, particularly for type 3 poliovirus. The lack of acquired immunity in adults suggests a potentially limited poliovirus circulation over the lifetime of those surveyed (spanning 1954 through 2014) and transmission of vaccine-derived poliovirus in this age group while underscoring the risk of these outbreaks among adults in the DRC.

Immunity and field efficacy of type 2-containing polio vaccines after cessation of trivalent oral polio vaccine: A population-based serological study in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: In Pakistan and other countries using oral polio vaccine (OPV), immunity to type 2 poliovirus is now maintained by a single dose of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization, supplemented in outbreak settings by monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2) and IPV. While well-studied in clinical trials, population protection against poliovirus type 2 achieved in routine and outbreak settings is generally unknown. METHODS: We conducted two phases of a population-based serological survey of 7940 children aged 6-11 months old, between November 2016 and October 2017 from 13 polio high-risk locations in Pakistan. RESULTS: Type 2 seroprevalence was 50% among children born after trivalent OPV (tOPV) withdrawal (April 2016), with heterogeneity across survey areas. Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) with mOPV2 followed by IPV improved population immunity, varying from 89% in Pishin to 64% in Killa Abdullah, with little observed marginal benefit of subsequent campaigns. In the other high-risk districts surveyed, a single SIA with IPV was conducted and appeared to improve immunity to 57% in Karachi to 84% in Khyber. CONCLUSIONS: Our study documents declining population immunity following trivalent OPV withdrawal in Pakistan, and wide heterogeneity in the population impact of supplementary immunization campaigns. Differences between areas, attributable to vaccination campaign coverage, were far more important for type 2 humoral immunity than the number of vaccination campaigns or vaccines used. This emphasizes the importance of immunization campaign coverage for type 2 outbreak response in the final stages of polio eradication. Given the declining type 2 immunity in new birth cohorts it is also recommended that 2 or more doses of IPV should be introduced in the routine immunization program of Pakistan.